Researchers at Mayo Clinic have developed more precise estimates of the risk that pancreatic cysts with concerning features may progress to pancreatic cancer or advanced precancerous changes within three years.
The prospective study followed 230 people with pancreatic cysts classified as having worrisome or high-risk features. The researchers found that the risk increased with the number of worrisome features. Patients with one feature had an estimated 2% risk of developing pancreatic cancer or advanced precancerous changes within three years. The risk increased to 4% for those with two features and 18% for those with three or more.
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Published in Gastroenterology, the findings could help physicians and patients make more informed decisions about whether to monitor pancreatic cysts or consider surgery.
“This information will help us counsel patients. If we want to intercept pancreatic cancer while also sparing patients from unnecessary interventions, we must really know what is likely to become cancer and what is not,” says Shounak Majumder, M.D., lead author and a gastroenterologist at Mayo Clinic.
The study also found that pancreatic cancers detected during careful surveillance were identified at an early stage. This suggests that appropriately risk-stratified patients may benefit from regular monitoring rather than immediate surgery.
